The March–June 2025 period will bring extreme market volatility, driven by geopolitical conflicts, economic instability, and shifting power dynamics. The immediate shocks are severe, while long-term consequences seem to shape financial markets, trade flows, and capital allocation well into 2028.
The Western world has been in disruptive transformation since 2015 (see The Personal View: “The USA – Major Themes 2015–2033”), and the instability is accelerating.
Global Leadership Crisis & Defense Industry Surge
Weak global leadership is leading to reactionary, high-stakes policy shifts. As autocratic leaders push geopolitical limits thus defense spending is on the rise. For Ukraine, the coming months are critical. March–June 2025 will see heightened security pressure as external military aid declines.
This favors defense contractors, including:
• Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)
• BAE Systems (LSE: BA)
• Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC)
As governments rearm and reallocate budgets, the defense industry remains a major investment theme.
Middle East Tensions & Energy Market Volatility
Iran’s escalating conflicts in mid-April 2025 highlight global energy security risks this allowing for oil supply disruptions which in turn could spike prices, benefiting:
• ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)
• Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
• Shell (LSE: SHEL)
With OPEC cuts, supply-chain disruptions, and geopolitical risks, one can expect high oil price volatility.
Border Controls Tighten
With the tightening of border control, Security & Cyber Defense is on the Rise.
Governments are tightening border policies and immigration laws, boosting the demand for:
• Defense tech & surveillance (Raytheon – NYSE: RTX, Smiths Group – LSE: SMIN)
• Cybersecurity infrastructure (Palo Alto Networks – NASDAQ: PANW, CrowdStrike – NASDAQ: CRWD, Thales – EPA: HO)
With state-sponsored cyberattacks rising, cyber defense remains a high-growth sector in 2025 and beyond.
Declining Foreign Aid
With the decline of foreign aid who Pays the Price? As nations prioritise domestic resilience, foreign aid is simply shrinking. The U.S. aid suspensions signal a trend that if the public opposition stays weak, further cuts are likely. Countries like Somalia, already battling famine and political instability they can only expect to face worsening crises.
ALSO READ: Warren Hammond’s View: Greta and the long road to sustainability
Investment Strategies for a Volatile Market
Despite all the uncertainty, there are investment opportunities for those who position themselves wisely:
✔ Defense & Security Stocks → Rising military & cybersecurity budgets.
✔ Energy & Commodities → Oil & gas remain volatile.
✔ Infrastructure & Industrial Stocks → Rising border security & supply-chain shifts favor:
• Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT)
• Siemens (ETR: SIE)
However, gold remains the strongest hedge. The Personal View first recommended gold and gold equities on March 8, 2021, when gold traded at $1,690/oz.
HOW DO YOU THINK GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICTS AND THE SHIFT IN GLOBAL LEADERSHIP WILL IMPACT LONG-TERM TRADE FLOWS AND CAPITAL ALLOCATION IN THE DEFENSE AND ENERGY SECTORS?
Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1
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