EVIL Vladimir Putin could deploy the obscure “Narva Scenario” to launch a surprise attack on Nato despite peace talks with President Donald Trump, an expert has warned.
Former Finnish general and MEP Pekka Toveri believes Trump and the West should be wary of trusting the mad dictator – warning that he could take advantage and try to break Nato’s Article 5.
Putin has agreed the “war must end” after Donald Trump went past Ukraine and European leaders to do business directly with the Kremlin.
But the former general and MEP for Finland has warned against the West trusting Putin in peace deals and giving him land as it would only make his “appetite bigger” – encouraging the tyrant to make a future invasion.
Toveri told The Sun that Putin would just need to wait for a couple of years and be prepared to sacrifice another 100,000 Russians before attacking again as, in Putin’s mind, the “spineless West will give up”.
And even if Europe built up its armies, Putin wouldn’t need to challenge them directly.
Instead, he could carry out the feared Narva Scenario and try and break Article 5 of Nato.
Russia would invade Estonia and seize the city of Narva in a small operation and then threaten to nuke anyone who tried to get it back.
Narva – which sits on the border between Russia and Estonia – was first occupied by Russia between 1558 and 1581, and then again in 1704.
It borders a river between the two countries – not far from Narva Bay – and over 97 per cent of the almost 60,000 residents there speak Russian.
On the edge of Nato’s eastern flank by the Baltic Sea, Narva is Estonia’s third biggest city.
There is a red line painted on the point where Narva crosses into Russia – on a bridge over the river.
Estonian border cops have previously told the BBC that thousands of Ukrainians have escaped war zones and fled into Estonia through this border crossing.
Toveri said it would take longer than six months, which is what the Danish spooks suggested, for Russia to invade Europe – but that it would definitely happen before the end of Trump’s administration.
He believes that Europeans would come to the defence of Estonia – but he questions whether America would as Putin would take advantage of Trump’s trust.
Toveri added: “That’s what the Estonians and other politics states are worried about – that Article 5 is questioned.
“And.the thing is, it’s easy for Putin to do that.”
In order to be victorious, Europe must pick up the production of weaponry and keep up sanctions so Russia will struggle to produce high-tech equipment.
But Toveri warned that trying to encourage peace with Putin would make him more likely to commit acts of sabotage in Europe.
He added: “Russians might be evil, but they are not stupid.
Putin's sights on three Nato countries
ESTONIA, Lithuania and Latvia have all strongly condemned Putin’s horrific war in Ukraine.
These major Russian-speaking cities in each country are of historical importance when thinking about the Russian empire Putin follows on from.
Geographically they also all provide important elements, like coastal locations, sea ports, industrial centres or key borders.
NARVA – ESTONIA
Narva – which sits on the border between Russia and Estonia – was first occupied by Russia between 1558 and 1581, and then again in 1704.
97 per cent of the almost 60,000 residents there speak Russian.
It borders a river between the two countries – not far from Narva Bay.
On the edge of Nato’s eastern flank by the Baltic Sea, Narva is Estonia’s third biggest city.
There is a red line painted on the point where Narva crosses into Russia – on a bridge over the river.
Estonian border police told the BBC that thousands of Ukrainians have escaped war zones and fled into Estonia through this border crossing.
Narva has welcomed Ukrainian refugees during Putin’s war, the BBC reports.
KLAIPEDA – LITHUANIA
Lithunia downgraded its diplomatic relations with Russia after Putin invaded Ukraine.
It closed its Russian consulate in Klaipeda, which is bordered by Latvia, Belarus and Poland on the Baltic Sea coast.
The third largest city in Lithuania, Klaipeda is a major seaport.
It has the highest number of native Russian speakers among Lithuanian cities.
Under the USSR, Russia turned Klaipeda into a valuable marine base.
DAUGAVPILS – LATVIA
This Latvian city, in the south, is bordered closely by Belarus and Lithuania.
It is the second largest city in the country and well populated.
It is also only 75 miles from the Latvian border with Russia.
Daugavpils is historically a major railway and industrial point – and was part of the Russian Empire in the late 1700s.
It has an overwhelmingly Russian speaking population.
Latvia has strongly condemned Putin’s war in Ukraine, and has been added to a list of all EU countries dubbed “unfriendly” by Putin.
“What they have learned from Ukraine? So far they have learned that well, their own army sucks.
“But another thing they have learned is that hybrid warfare works.
“They’ve been attacking us over a decade. They’ve been attacking us in cyber with the information operations now support us and what we are doing?
“They can break the unity of Western organizations like EU and NATO, and they can can break the unity within the nations and force us to use a lot of effort to to secure our infrastructure, like undersea cables, and so on.”
If Russia signs a peace with America and Ukraine rejects it – then Europe could step in and continue to support Ukraine defending against Russia.
It comes as Sir Keir Starmer has said he is willing to deploy British troops on the ground in Ukraine to enforce a peace deal.
Toveri said: “It would be in our interest to say that step in and say ‘Okay, don’t worry. We will replace the American support. We have money, we have resources. We will replace the American support so that Ukraine can keep on fighting until Russia is ready for more reasonable peace.
“You have to remember that Russia is nowhere near to winning in this war.”
Ukraine could continue fighting Russia on the defensive and killing as many Russians as possible with the support of Europe, as Zelensky’s people “are ready to accept the peace”.
Toveri explained how despite Ukrainian citizens being prepared to accept temporarily losing some areas, “they are not willing to take a peace where they don’t get real security guarantees.”
He added: “They can continue it long time with low intensity but it’s hurting them and the economy bad – so we should just not to give up now on the ceasefire/demilitarised zone.
“You would need 150-to-200,000 troops there and then you have to rotate them. You need three times more.
“We, the West, have to support Ukrainian so that they can rearm the army – so it is strong enough with modern Western technology so that they can be the main deterrence, and then, of course, some kind of presence from the Western countries.”
