A new report suggests Nintendo’s plan for the Switch 2 includes getting a head start on the PlayStation 6, with launch sales estimated to exceed the original Switch and the PS5.
With sales for the Nintendo Switch flagging and fans hungry for new hardware, it’s difficult to imagine the Nintendo Switch 2 being anything less than a huge success.
Analysts expect the Switch 2 to be a very popular item once it launches, with one already suggesting the console could sell 4.3 million units in the US alone, by the end of 2025 – although that would be less than the original Switch.
However, a Japanese analyst has predicted otherwise, claiming the Switch 2 could sell more units worldwide in its first three months than its predecessor.
Writing for the Japan edition of GamesIndustry.biz, Toyo Securities analyst Hideki Yasuda predicts the Switch 2 will push six million units in its first three months on the market.
By comparison, the original Switch, which launched in March 2017, managed 4.7 million sales in its first four months, though it was hampered by the fact that it was often sold out due to its popularity.
Yasuda is running on the assumption that the console will launch in July so its launch period would cover the second quarter of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, i.e. July to September.
Yasuda had previously expected the Switch 2 to be out in the first half of the year, but it’s unclear exactly why his prediction has changed. Regardless, sometime this summer is a popular theory for the Switch 2’s launch.
Yasuda adds that his six million sales estimates may still be too low, considering Nintendo is eager to have enough supply to meet demand, to avoid the Switch 2 selling out at launch like the original Switch did.
It’d be an impressive feat if pulled off, especially since a summer launch is highly unusual for the video games industry, with autumn or early spring being more normal.
That’s what Sony did with the PlayStation 5, which it launched in November 2020. Despite stock shortages brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, it sold approximately 4.5 million units by the end of December, making it the biggest launch in PlayStation history according to Sony.
Speaking of PlayStation, Yasuda also believes that Nintendo’s plan to supply a large quantity of Switch 2 consoles is part of a scheme to get a head start on the PlayStation 6, flooding the market with so many Switch 2s that Sony won’t be able to catch up.
There’s speculation that the PlayStation 6 could launch in 2027, perhaps even late 2026, although Nintendo has typically never seemed that concerned with how its rival console manufacturers are performing, leaving Sony and Microsoft to butt heads over whose console is doing better (a the moment it’s obviously Sony’s).
While Nintendo’s is still keeping mum on a release date, price, and launch titles, those details should be revealed in next month’s Nintendo Direct.
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