Donald Trump’s ‘direct’ approach with Vladimir Putin is a double blow, not only to Ukraine – but to the future of Europe, a Russian military expert in the UK has warned.
It is the moment that Europeans have been anticipating for months since the Republican promised to end Russia’s bloodshed in his first 24 hours in the White House – a ceasefire.
The US president spoke with both Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky on the phone last night, with all of them agreeing that they want to make a deal.
Yet, there is little faith that negotiations – led by the US – will end in lasting security guarantees and will not result in another war in Europe in the near future.
Keir Giles, a leading analyst on European defence and Russia at Chatham House in London, said that even before official talks have started, the US has been bowing down to Russia’s demands.
‘A promise by Trump of peace for our time, achieved through rewarding an aggressor, is worth little when held against Russia’s ongoing preparations for further war,’ he said.
Other experts assured Metro that the way this war is resolved will serve ‘as a litmus test for all would-be dictators and tyrants’.
What could a Ukraine-Russia peace deal look like?
Ukraine is definitely not getting what it wants – a Nato membership and the return of its borders from 2014, including the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula. That is for sure.
Ivan Stupak, a military expert and ex-SBU officer, told Metro that Ukrainians are looking for an immediate ceasefire due to major losses in manpower and a strained economy.
‘We are realising that it is impossible to reach Ukrainian borders from 2022 and even 2022. A Nato membership is an illusion,’ he said.
Stupak speculated that a US-led plan would include freezing of the current frontline, establishing a demilitarized zone and possibly stationing UN peacekeepers there.
For Ukraine, it all comes down to making sure that Russia does not renew its invasion as soon as it sees an opportunity.
Zelensky has also stressed that any deal should involve Ukraine, rather than just an agreement between Trump and Putin.
But Russia is definitely getting more than it deserves, experts have warned.
Putin may claim that he is ready for talks but Russian officials continue to refer to a proposal from June 2024.
Under that plan Russia would get to keep all the Ukrainian territory it has seized, plus some more land still under Ukrainian control.
Ukraine would not be allowed to join Nato and western sanctions against Russia would be scrapped.
What are the implications for Europe?
Experts have warned that appeasing the Russian dictator could result in history repeating itself and only embolden his imperialistic desires to take over more land on the continent.
Wayne Jordash KC, president of Global Rights Compliance stressed that the war is not just about Ukraine’s independence, but also ‘a battle for the democratic principles and values of the civilised world.’
Keir Giles also said: ‘With acceptance that Russia can retain the territory it has seized in exchange for a plea for peace, the parallels with 1938 could only be clearer if Trump had held up a note and said Putin had assured him that he had no further territorial ambitions in Europe.
‘Credible security guarantees for Ukraine from the US and Nato have been explicitly ruled out by Hegseth.
‘But there are few doubts among the most reliably accurate observers of Moscow that in their absence, any ceasefire will be brief and give Russia a welcome breathing space to rebuild its land forces faster without Ukraine inconveniently destroying them at the same time.’
How is Trump’s relationship with Putin impacting the deal?
Trump has a history of positive and admiring comments about Putin that have long prompted criticism that he is ‘soft on Russia’.
During this first term in the White House, he described the war leader as ‘strong’ and ‘smart’ and later said he ‘got along great’ with him.
And Putin said last month he had always had ‘pragmatic and trusting’ relations with the US president.
Reflecting the nature of their relationship, Russian state-controlled media painted their call as a major success for the Kremlin.
News agency RIA Novosti said in an opinion column: ‘The US finally hurt Zelensky for real,’ adding that Trump had found ‘common ground’ with Putin.
‘This means that the formula “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” – a sacred cow for Zelensky, the EU and the previous US administration – no longer exists.
‘Moreover, the opinion of Kyiv and Brussels (the EU) is of no interest to Trump at all,’ it added.
Russian popular pro-Kremlin tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda went even further and published a column stating in the headline that ‘Trump signed Zelensky’s death sentence’.
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