This is the ‘moment of truth’ for Russia – but also for US president Donald Trump – amid a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin is weighing his response to the deal, which would pause all attacks at sea and in the air, something which has been welcomed by most European leaders.
The decision, experts say, could mark a critical turning point in the war and will test both the Kremlin’s resolve and Trump’s stance on the conflict.
Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Metro that Russia would want to understand first what would happen if it does reject the ceasefire outright.
He described this as the ‘moment of truth’ for Russia and Trump, adding: Would the US then double down on its support for Ukraine and increased sanctions? We just don’t know.’
If accepted unconditionally, an extended ceasefire would amount to a strategic defeat for Putin, Chalmers warned.
It would solidify Ukraine’s independence, accelerate Western aid, and also reinforce the ties with Europe.
These are all outcomes that would contradict Putin’s imperialistic goals in the start of the full-scale invasion.
Chalmers explained: ‘As soon as the guns stop, Ukraine’s airports will reopen, foreign assistance will flow in at greater speed, and there will be a strong sense of success across Ukraine.
‘This is not what Russia has fought three years of bloody war to achieve. It will not be easy for Putin to explain to his followers why he has wasted so much blood and treasure.’
This comes as the Kremlin finally responded for the first time to news that Ukraine has backed a US-proposed ceasefire.
It warned that Russia does not want to get ahead of itself and that it first needs to receive information from the US.
Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said he did not rule out the possibility of a phone call between presidents Putin and Trump, which he said could be organised very quickly if needed.
This cautious response aligns with Chalmers’ assessment that Russia will seek clarification and conditions before deciding.
He said: ‘To avoid making an outright rejection, Putin may press instead for clarification and conditions – especially ones that Ukraine will find it hard to accept.
‘Russia could insist on there being no Nato or European forces on Ukrainian soil while the ceasefire lasts, and on Ukrainian demilitarisation.
‘And the US may accept some of these conditions. We should know a lot more in the coming days.’
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